I am using the term "fraud" loosely here as most of these teams will be good defensively, just not as good as they currently look. In the past 5 seasons 2 teams have managed to hold their opponents to a sub 32% mark from 3 pt land with the absolute best mark being the 11/12 Celtics with a 30.8% mark. Five teams this season are currently on pace to beat that and a sixth (Sacramento) would set the second best season over the past 5 years if they maintain their current rate. Those 5 teams with their 3 pt% against and current defensive rank are
Rockets 27.5% #2
Trailblazers 29.0% #5
Spurs 29.7% #3
Warriors 30.2% #1
Thunder 30.7% #8
I think it is pretty obvious that this is early season variance and not these teams simply and suddenly (and simultaneously) learning how to dominate the 3 pt arc. Ignoring the Thunder (for obvious reasons) here is where these teams would rank defensively last season if (all else equal) their opponents were averaging 33% (a very strong defensive number, typically #3-#5 over a season) or their rate from last year (using this years 3pt attempts).
Rockets- Current Defensive rating 98.0, opponents 3pt attempts per game 20.9
Adjusted for 33% shooting- defensive rating- 101.5- defensive ranking for that rating last season #3
Adjusted for 35.5% shooting- 103 - ranking #5
Trailblazers- 101.8- 17.3
Adjusted for 33% shooting- 103.9- #6/7
Adjusted for 35.5% - 105.2 #10
Spurs- 98.1 - 20.2
33% - 100.1 - #2
35.3%- 101.5 #3
Warriors- 97.7 - 21.5
33% - 99.5 #2
34.4%- 100.0 #2
This is a superficial analysis but as we can see only one of these teams actually looks like a fraud. Rather than a top 5 defense Portland looks like a fringe top 10 defense when this variance is removed. Obviously there are many other factors that could be distorting this picture that are subject to variance but I would tentatively say that the Portland hype train, much like last year, is going to slowly run out of steam as the season goes on.
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