Friday, December 11, 2015

Seems to easy . . .

When you follow a team you have an emotional attachment to it always seems easy to find a workable solution to problems.  Probably because your optimism clouds you analysis.  When you follow teams dispassionately it is frequently harder to come up with an easy win to make them better.  But this time, this move, how can something like this not happen?

Detroit has a depth issue.  They have 3 players with a PER >15, they have 3 players with a TS > 50% and they have 4 players with a WS per 48 >0.1. These are low hurdles to clear.

Boston has a plethora of depth.  Tyler Zeller is getting DNP CDd frequently and when he does get in the game it is for an 8 min average.  For a guy that played solid ball in many respects over 82 games and 1700+ mins last season, this seems like a waste.  David Lee, likewise (though on a much harder to trade contract) is a functional NBA player that is getting limited mins. Neither guy is going to make Detroit a contender, but the Pistons depth is so poor that adding 20 mpg of Zeller's play could be conceivably worth 4-5 wins over the course of a season. 

Lee is probably not getting moved thanks to his contract, but it seems likely that Boston will not be the high bidder for Zeller in this off season given his use so far this year (unless they are trying to tank his value!  wink), and it seems unlikely that he would want to comeback to a team that appears to have 4 guys lined up ahead of him for next season already.  Detroit is also short on 2nd round picks (3 futures getting sent out) and Boston has (quick count on 3 net 2nd rounders coming in.  Zeller + some value in 2nd d picks for a protected first rounder (along the lines of the SAC pick that has been floating around for a few years from the JJ Hickson trade) from Detroit? Isn't this an easy yes for both teams?

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